The question is: how big is the effect. Even a small effect will cause significant distortions in battery metering,
True, and this is what is seen.
but if the effect is large enough, it will cause the batteries not to last any where near as many cycles as originally believed.
Rubbish. It doesn't diminish the battery's capacity, just changes the q-v characteristic DURING CHARGING. Even if it were a large effect, it's still not going to effect total capacity, or estimating remaining charge by measuring voltage during discharge.
Notes regarding this:
1. This effect is shown in LiFePO4, which is commonly marketed as a "safe" chemistry Li-ion. Laptop and mobile phone batteries almost universally use LiCoO, which is not, AFAIK, addressed in this research. The Tesla Roadster also uses either LiCoO or LiMnO (I've seen conflicting reports -- probably because these two have similar electrical characteristics -- and both have much better energy density than LiFePO4), so your plea to Roadster owners seems a little odd...
2. This effect is caused by starting with discharged battery, charging partially (greatest effect for charging ~50%), discharging completely, then recharging completely. During the final (complete) charge process, the voltage starts at baseline (i.e. full-discharge/full-charge cycle, at the same % charging), increases slightly faster than baseline, so that the voltage difference over baseline peaks at 50% (or whatever state you partially charged it to), then increases more slowly than baseline to arrive at the same voltage when fully charged -- so capacity measured while charging will be overestimated. On the subsequent discharge, however, the q-v characteristic conforms to the baseline -- so capacity remaining will be measured accurately when a device is in use.
Source: http://rss.slashdot.org/~r/Slashdot/slashdotScience/~3/5iIrJK1SJCM/story01.htm
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